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The rapid shift in expectations away from multiple rate cuts this year may have created a trading opportunity around Wednesday's inflation data, according to Bank of America. We believe squeeze risks for rate-sensitive laggards on a CPI miss outweigh downside risks on a CPI beat," Kwon wrote. Specifically, there could be an opportunity to bet on the squeeze risk through the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , Kwon said. KRE YTD mountain This regional bank ETF is underperforming the broader market year to date. Investors could position for this potential squeeze by just buying the ETF outright, though that does carry the risk of a hot inflation reading pushing regional bank stocks down.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Russell, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America . Equity, Regional Banking, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, Bank of America Locations: IWM, Silicon
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also noted that a strong labor market wouldn't deter the central bank from cutting rates. Fundstrat's Tom Lee told CNBC he expects the Russell 2000 to rally 50% . "I think the Russell 2000 represents sort of the best of things to happen when the Fed starts cutting." The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 1.6% this week. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF tracks that index.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Blair Boyer, Boyer, Goldman Sachs, Tom Lee, Russell, , Lee Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Dow, CNBC, Nvidia, Microsoft, Devices, Visa, Blackwell, JPMorgan, NVIDIA, Fed, GE Vernova, New York Stock Exchange, GE Locations: Jennison
Is the breakout from resistance likely and should you consider allocating exposure to this basket of 2000 small capitalization stocks? I think the breakout should occur, but I don't think we should increase exposure to the Russell 2000 for two reasons. Ideally the rotation was going to carry through into the upper-right green quadrant indicating confirmed outperformance relative to the S & P 500. I'm not saying we shun small caps all together and continue to focus on the large caps. We need to focus on fundamentally sound small cap companies and we can do so through the Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF (CALF) .
Persons: Russell, Powell, Gordon, POWL Organizations: Federal Reserve, Powell Industries, Edge, Inside Edge Capital Management
In a market bedazzled by flashy growth stocks, Torray Investment Partners instead runs a fund that's trying to redefine what value is. The Torray Fund , founded by the late Robert Torray in 1990, is ahead 7.4% so far this year, outpacing the 6.5% gain in the S & P 500. Apart from the Torray Fund, the firm manages four other concentrated portfolios that also hold between 20 and 30 companies. These portfolios are separately managed accounts of either concentrated large growth companies, small- and mid-capitalization growth names, large value companies and equity income. Compared to other large value funds, Torray is overweight in all three.
Persons: iShares Russell, Jeffrey Lent, Robert Torray, Berkshire Hathaway, Morningstar, Lent, Shawn Hendon, Eaton, McLennan, Hendon, Torray, it's Organizations: Torray Investment Partners, Value, Torray, Russell, Berkshire, American Express, Marsh, Financial, Morningstar, Applied Materials, Qualcomm, Nvidia Locations: Eaton, Berkshire
If you rode your Big Tech winners into the new year, now might be the time to consider whittling down a few of those overweight positions. "It's the only way to consistently buy low and sell high, but no one ever wants to do it," duQuesnay said. He noted that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is a good way to get broad exposure to the space. The Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign made yields on an array of assets, ranging from Treasurys to money market funds, attractive. Ethridge, who bought six- and 12-month brokered certificates of deposit for clients in 2023, is going for longer-dated instruments these days.
Persons: rebalancing, Blair duQuesnay, duQuesnay, Morningstar, Amy Arnott, Arnott, it's, Barry Glassman, Russell, didn't, Malcolm Ethridge, Ethridge, Tesla, Glassman Organizations: Big Tech, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Wealth Services, Wealth, AMD, Federal, Taxpayers Locations: New Orleans, North Bethesda , Maryland, Rockville , Maryland, rebalance
"If there is a regime shift, then what has worked could be quite different from what does work," McLennan said. That means the growth stocks that dominated for years may come back to earth in the mid-2020s. He also recommends that investors diversify away from growth stocks that thrived under low rates and instead broaden out to value-oriented names. Valuations explain 80% of a stock's returns over a decade, according to Bank of America. Smead sees energy in stocks in Canada also outperforming in the coming decade, as well as European banks.
Persons: , Peter Bates, Rowe Price, Damanick Dantes, We're, Dantes, you've, He's, Matt McLennan, McLennan, Kimball Brooker, Morningstar, Nicola Stafford, Stafford, it's, Molina, Bates, Russell, Cole Smead, that's, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, Bob Doll, Doll, Smead, Michael Sheldon, Sheldon, who's, there's, Chris Chen, Chen, Roth Organizations: Service, Business, Global, International, McLennan, First Eagle Global Fund, Eagle Investments, Goldman, Asset Management, Stock, Molina Healthcare, Vanguard Value, Healthcare, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth Management, MRB Partners, Canadian, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Energy, P Bank ETF, RDM Financial, Social Security, Social, Insight Financial, Trust, IRA Locations: Canada, Colmar, United States, Canadian, Europe, Treasuries
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Signs the U.S. stock market rally is broadening from the so-called Magnificent Seven of mega-cap growth and technology companies is bolstering investor hopes for a rally through year-end. In one encouraging sign, about 55% of the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-day moving averages as of Monday. Among other signs, the equal-weight S&P 500 (.SPXEW) -- a proxy for the average stock in the index -- rose 3.24% last week. The equal-weight S&P 500 is trading at a 5% discount to its 10-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio, according to Edward Jones. Still, there are reasons to think that the market rally is not on the verge of a sustained broadening.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Adam Turnquist, Meta, Russell, Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, ” Mahajan, Steve Sosnick, Jason Draho, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, LPL, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Interactive Brokers, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries
Meme stocks have been on the rise recently as November's market rally brings a wave of bullishness. "The upshot: the reemergence of meme stocks shows investors' animal spirits are starting to run hot again," DataTrek said. AdvertisementMEME, BOTZ, and IWO have seen gains of 10.8%, 6.6%, and 5.9%, respectively, while the S&P 500 has gained 3.1% in that stretch. AdvertisementStill, the recent outperformance for funds with exposure to meme stocks reflect "generally bullish market conditions," Colas and Rabe maintained. DataTrek also noted on Tuesday that S&P 500 sector correlations suggests the November stock rally should continue through the end of the year.
Persons: , Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, iShares Russell, DataTrek, Colas, Rabe Organizations: Service, Robotics, Treasury, IWO, GameStop, AMC
Small caps have been struggling versus their peers as a rising interest rate environment has absolutely punished these growth companies. My thesis of small caps finally getting up off the mat is based upon my recent and lonely call of U.S. Treasury yields relenting. In addition, I have repositioned my model portfolios' exposure to include small caps for the remaining six trading weeks of 2023. "Bid" meaning that I am not alone in this idea of small caps finding some legs between now and the end of the year. This risk reversal is being used as an aggressive bull trade.
Persons: Russell, IWM Organizations: Nasdaq, Treasury, Fed
Higher-for-longer interest rates are especially bad for growth stocks. For those keen on getting back into the growth corner of the market, CNBC Pro screened for stocks in the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF that have further upside. Despite its huge gains this year, it was given more upside by analysts — potentially 45.5% based on the average price target, according to FactSet. Other stocks that made the list include cloud companies Okta and Snowflake , with over 30% potential upside each. Fintech-related stocks such as PayPal and Block also showed up, as did many health-care and pharmaceutical stocks.
Persons: Stocks, Russell, It's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, U.S . Federal Reserve, Citi, CNBC Pro, Nvidia, PayPal Locations: Snowflake
But declines in small-cap stocks suggest that worries about the US economy’s health still linger on Wall Street. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks the performance of US small-cap stocks, last Friday touched its lowest level since November 2020 after turning negative for the year earlier in October. Small-cap stocks tend to be an indicator of economic strength, because they generate most of their revenue domestically. Still, Mahajan says that small-cap stocks could be set up for a rally, especially if the economy sees renewed growth next year. Turkey prices drop as Thanksgiving planning ramps upSomething wild has happened with turkey prices that’s going to make the cost of cooking the Thanksgiving meal more palatable to families on a tight budget, reports my colleague Parija Kavilanz.
Persons: Russell, Jim Polk, , Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, Jerome Powell, Mahajan, Polk, Bryan Mena, Parija Kavilanz, “ There’s, Michael Swanson, Swanson, Wells Fargo’s, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Big Tech, Homestead Funds, Fed, Penn Capital Management, Federal Reserve, Wells, Food Institute Locations: New York, small, Israel, Turkey
Small cap stocks have been left in the dust by this year's megacap tech rally, but at least one ETF of smaller companies is holding its own. Bank of America ETF strategist Jared Woodard said in a note to clients Tuesday that there is one small cap ETF in particular that "cuts out the junk" and is outperforming its benchmark. The Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF (CALF) owns companies with high free cash flow, a key measure of quality," Woodard said. The CALF ETF works by identifying the 100 stocks in the S & P Small Cap 600 index with the highest free cash flow yield. CALF YTD mountain The CALF ETF has outperformed larger small cap funds this year.
Persons: Jared Woodard, Woodard, Russell, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, American Eagle Outfitters, Wire, Vanguard, Nvidia
Small-cap stocks were on investors' radar last week. The Russell 2000 index turned in five straight days of gains for the first time since mid-July, according to CNBC analysis. "We're in consumer staples stocks and Russell 2000 stocks," said Niles, adding that Pepsi is the fourth-largest holding in his Satori Fund's consumer staples basket. Both Citi and Morningstar said small-cap stocks now look cheaper than the broader market. How to play small-caps One of the more popular ways to invest in small-cap stocks is through the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).
Persons: Russell, Dan Niles, CNBC's, Niles, David Bailin, Morningstar, Davidson, — CNBC's Michelle Fox, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Russell, Pepsi, Citi, Citi Global Wealth's, Morningstar Equity Research, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Screen CNBC Pro Locations: Israel, Gaza
A Monday evening note from Almanac editor Jeffrey Hirsch said that the stock market appears to be in the early stages of an end-of-year rally. SPY YTD mountain The S & P 500 is up since May, but did suffer a late-summer swoon. The buy signal could help offset the multiple negatives working against the stock market, including bond yield volatility and the conflict in the Middle East. The Almanac's portfolio changes show an expectation of a broad market rally. The moves include buying the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) , SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as well as the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) .
Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, SPDR, Russell Organizations: Dow Jones, ETF Trust, Trust, P Biotech, Consumer, Vanguard, Index
Goldman Sachs expects rates to hold steady again as inflation trends down and the labor market remains strong. But Raymond Bridges, the portfolio manager of the Bridges Capital ETF, an actively managed equity long-only fund, believes the overall macro outlook is still bearish. But regional banks continue to access this program every week, Bridges said. But just because he's bearish on the macro outlook doesn't mean he's not going to take advantage of short-term opportunities. His ETF, launched on May 11, is a mix of US equity-index ETFs, large-cap stocks, and cash or cash equivalents.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Raymond Bridges, Bridges, Joseph Abate, Jerome Powell, he's bearish, Russell Organizations: Fed, Bridges Capital ETF, Barclays, Reuters, Regional Banking, Trust, BPI
In a client note, Faber said he likes US value and international value stocks. A few exchange-traded funds that offer exposure to value stocks include the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV), the iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF (IWS), and the Dimensional US Marketwide Value ETF (DFUV). But an arguably better opportunity lies outside of the US stock market in international value stocks, he said. But the discrepancy, like in the US, between international value stocks and all other international stocks is also at "historically wide levels," Faber said. Cambria FundsInvestors can gain exposure to international value stocks through funds like the iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (EFV), the Avantis International Large Cap Value ETF (AVIV), and the Dimensional International Value ETF (DFIV).
Persons: Meb Faber, Faber, Cambria Investment Management's Meb Faber, Russell, Faber's, they're Organizations: Nvidia, Cambria Investment, Morningstar, Vanguard Value, Value Locations: GuruFocus, Cambria
A Calvert fund is giving investors a sustainable way to play this year's technology rebound. The firm's U.S. Large Cap Growth Responsibility Index (CGJAX) is up 27% this year, rallying in near harmony with growth stocks. 'Consistent approach' Fitting of any growth fund, a handful of large tech names are among the biggest holdings as of June 30, per Morningstar. "This fund still offers a broadly diversified option for investors looking for a balance between ESG and growth stocks," Tran wrote when rating the fund at the end of last year. The fund also benefits from having a more data-driven approach to picking stocks, Huang wrote.
Persons: Calvert, Russell, Morningstar, , Jade Huang, Huang, Lan Anh Tran, Tran Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Facebook, Tesla, Nasdaq, Morningstar, Russell, Federal Reserve Locations: Calvert
A popular ETF focused on cash flow is finding its footing again after lagging the broader market in the first half of 2023. The Pacer U.S. Cash Cows ETF (COWZ) has set several recent highs over the past two weeks, including closing at a record $51.49 per share on Wednesday. The index consists of Russell 1000 stocks with the best free cash flow yield. "The rebalance every 90 day is sort of the key because it keeps the focus on the most current free cash flow yield, and the names with the highest free cash flow yield. "When you focus on high free cash flow yield names, you actually end up owning companies who grow their earnings faster than their index," he added.
Persons: COWZ, Russell, Sean O'Hara, Morningstar, O'Hara Organizations: The Pacer U.S, Cash, Nasdaq, Energy, Chevron, Booking Holdings
ETF strategies to broaden beyond the mega-cap tech rally
  + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Investors looking to diversify beyond the tech sector runup this year can consider a handful of alternative ETFs to reduce ballooning concentration risk, said one ETF strategist. "The consternation over the mega-cap tech names driving the market — I understand it," Todd Sohn, Strategas ETF and technical strategist, told CNBC's Bob Pisani on "ETF Edge" on Monday. "It's a very under-the-radar fund," Sohn said. "[When] you think of Vanguard, you think VOO [and] VTI , their fixed-income products. For tactical investors looking to diversify into a more balanced fund, Sohn recommended the RSP, which tracks the equally weighted performance of all S&P 500 stocks.
Persons: Todd Sohn, CNBC's Bob Pisani, " Sohn, Russell, Uber, Sohn Organizations: RSP, Blackstone, Marvell Technology, Vanguard
This divergence likely resolves with value moving a bit higher and growth moving meaningfully lower," Krinsky said. The iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) has an expense ratio of 0.18% and is up about 4% year to date. IVE YTD mountain The IVE has outperformed some of the other large value ETFs in the first half. In fact, the 11 biggest value ETFs have all seen outflows, fitting with Krinsky's theory that the value theme could be due for a rebound. Two large value funds that have seen inflows are Dimensional's U.S. Marketwide Value ETF (DFUV) and U.S.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Russell, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Big Tech, Marketwide Locations: U.S
The bank expects the Russell 2000 to deliver 14% returns in the next year vs. 9% for the S&P 500. Goldman SachsGoldman's expectation for 14% returns in the coming year partly stems from their call for 1.4% GDP growth over that period. "More broadly, this should support US economic activity, the primary driver of Russell 2000 returns." Investors can gain broader exposure to small-cap stocks through exchange-traded funds like the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), the Schwab US Small-Cap ETF (SCHA), and the Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF (VIOO). Additionally, the research firm Morningstar listed the following small-cap ETFs as its top picks in a June 20 note: Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB), iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR), and Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF (SCHA).
Persons: Russell, Goldman Sachs, Lily Calcagnini, Calcagnini, Goldman, they're, Morningstar Organizations: Federal Reserve, pharma, Schwab, Vanguard, Schwab U.S Locations: United States
Portfolio strategist Lily Calcagnini said in a note to clients that the firm's models show the Russell 2000 small-cap index should outperform over the next 12 months. "The Russell 2000 should rise by 14% during the next 12 months, according to a simple model based on US economic growth and starting valuations that has explained roughly two-thirds of Russell 2000 returns between 1995 and 2015," the note said. There are many ETFs that offer investors exposure to the small-cap space, including several large index funds with low fees. The iShares Core S & P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) is the largest small-cap ETF with more than $67 billion and an expense ratio of 0.06%. While the broad index funds above have all returned less than 10% this year, some active funds have seen better results.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lily Calcagnini, Russell, Goldman, Dow Jones, Janus Henderson, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: BlackRock, Vanguard, Schwab U.S, Dow, Growth Alpha, Pacer
So if you had $50,000 to invest, where should you put it and how much should you allocate to each asset class? He recommends the following: 35% to Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF; 25% to options trades; 15% to SPDR S & P 500 ETF; 15% to ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF ; 5% to iShares Russell 2000 ETF ; and 5% cash. He added that he would look to cash in on artificial intelligence via the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF. He broke down his 40% (or $20,000) stock allocation this way: $10,000 into U.S. stocks, $5,000 into Europe, and $5,000 into Asian emerging market stocks. Hedge against volatility Pannell, who would have a 15% hedge reserve for the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF, said investors need some downside coverage.
Persons: they're, Jay Hatfield, Ryan Pannell, ProShares, iShares Russell, Victor Kuoch, hasn't, Pannell, Wade Guenther, Treasurys Raymond Bridges, CNBC's Ganesh Rao Organizations: CNBC, Infrastructure Capital Advisors, Nvidia, Microsoft, Tech, , Condors, Wilshire, Bridges Capital Locations: U.S . Federal, Asia, Pacific, Europe, U.S, Taiwan
Small cap stocks are domestic bellwethers, since smaller companies generate most of their revenue from US customers. Investors say that recent gains in small caps are helping prop up the burgeoning bull market, even as a potential economic downturn draws near. Cheap buysNow, the rally in small caps suggests that Wall Street is optimistic about the economy’s health. Some investors say cheap valuations and and hopes for a muted economic downturn means small caps look more attractive than they have in months. Optimism about the economyThe small caps’ rally is also an auspicious sign for the broader economy, says Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.
Persons: they’ve, Rambus, , John Ragard, Quincy Krosby, Russell, Francis Gannon, Anna Rathbun Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Shockwave, Management, LPL, Penn Capital Management, Royce Investment Partners, Federal Reserve, CBIZ Investment Advisory Services Locations: New York, That’s
NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - Fear of missing out on the recent stock market rally is driving traders in the U.S. equity options market to lap up bullish derivative contracts at a hectic pace, further fueling gains for stocks, analysts said on Friday. On Thursday, a record 1.8 million S&P 500 calls traded. The rush into call options lifted the S&P 500 Index's 1-month moving average of calls-to-puts to the highest in at least 4 years, according to Trade Alert data. Some of the rush into call options has also helped fuel the rally, said Brent Kochuba, founder of options analytic service SpotGamma. "The trend is probably higher... but in the very short term we have gotten over our skies," Kochuba said.
Persons: Russell, Christopher Jacobson, Brent Kochuba, Kochuba, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, Thomson Locations: U.S, Susquehanna
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